Our slip is beginning to show

I read two interesting and related articles in the past two days which reveal our slip is beginning to show. The first article spoke of the noticeable decline in travel to the US since the ill-conceived travel ban was instituted by our new President.

The decline is from multiple countries beyond the boundaries of the seven countries noted by the President and has been termed the “Trump Slump.” The lost revenue on our mainland travel is estimated at $185 million per The Global Business Travel Association as reported in The Guardian.

The second article noted the fall off in foreign students interested in attending US colleges and universities. The reason cited is not feeling welcomed by the new administration. This is precisely the kind of immigration we want. The reason is “innovation is portable” per former Reagan and Clinton advisor David Smick. If we attract and retain foreign students, their ideas will bear fruit here. And, jobs initially surround the innovator.

These glimpses of our slip are just the beginning of a decline in revenue should we continue forward with our inward, nationalistic focus. Our slip will show even more and the impact on our growth will be more noticeable.

In an earlier post called “You cannot shrink to greatness,” global trade is accretive to the world’s economy, including ours. By not being welcoming, we will be harming only ourselves. This is a key reason some economists have predicted a malaise or recession under this President once the market euphoria contends with reality.

Words and actions have consequences. If we want to be a global country, we need to act like one.

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26 thoughts on “Our slip is beginning to show

  1. We’ll never be a “global country” hit this leader. He is (among other things) insular and fiercely nationalistic. If the tourism industry tries to put pressure on him he will tweet them to death.

    • Dru, it is like a death with a thousand cuts. When he promotes a culture that is less welcoming, then people feel less welcomed and don’t come. We have all these states doing TV and Internet ads to lure tourism, with a President who is making it harder on their sales efforts. Keith

  2. Dear Keith,

    DT talks about creating jobs. With the repeal of the ACA, there will be a loss of healthcare jobs which are noted for providing folks with a living wage. With his so called travel ban, there will be a loss of travel industry jobs.If all the government cut backs go through, there will be a loss of government jobs.

    As for a real increase in business type jobs, I don’t see it being for real without the infrastructure bill being pushed through soon.

    But I do see stocks rising in near future, an increase in business profits with the 1% becoming even richer.

    I am waiting for when the first debt ceiling issue comes due which is this month. Spending is already unbelievable.

    Ciao, Gronda

    • Gronda, you are seeing the future very clearly, unless he deviates from the paths he his on. The repeal of ACA will likely be dilutive to the economy. And, it is just more than healthcare jobs. People will now need to spend less on other things to pay for medical expenses. This is the more material dilutive effect, in my view. Right now, the stock market is priced on euphoria, not deliverables. Even though he has signed several orders, some are for show and don’t do much. The weightiest thing he has done is commit to looking at regulation, which is both good and bad. He is likely to throw out too many babies with the bathwater. Dodd-Frank does some good things, but could be improved. The CFPB that was spawned by Dodd-Frank is doing a marvelous job protecting people from fraudulent and aggressive marketing practices. He has threatened to do away with Dodd-Frank. When the debt rises, growth stagnates and unemployment increases down the road, this euphoria will die off.

      Thanks for your thoughts, Keith

  3. Note to Readers: I have long been a believer that one of the best things a President can do is be our best ambassador abroad to promote working with our businesses and buying our products. For the large part, establishing commerce with countries is good for America and the world. One of Richard Nixon’s greatest achievements is opening doors to China. That has paid huge dividends and made us safer.

    With our current President’s unhealthy national focus and zealous limitations on travel and borders coupled with facilitating a more racist and xenophobic environment, we seem to be making it difficult to partner with people.

  4. Keith – I am enjoying the many possible interpretations of ‘slip’ – slip of the tongue, a misstep in walking, and the ever-loving slip beneath those skirts we used to wear. Language is so much fun, and you picked a great phrase to kick-off a wonderful post.

  5. Note to Readers: I mention in a comment that this seems like a death by a thousand cuts, but it may be better defined as erosion due to drip by drip of water. Think of it this way. We try to ban travel and that provides a global backlash. We have a greater numbers on incidents where people of color or other religions and countries are being attacked, making America a less safe place to travelers. We threaten to build a wall and insult a major trading partner. We tear up a trade deal and say we are going to punish companies on doing what they have been doing for years. And, we devalue our ideals and look less like we hold higher ground. We foresake science and become freer planetary polluters. So, this drip, drip erosion will slowly decrease our growth and cost jobs.

  6. Trump’s economic plans lean heavily on growth that is unlikely. Particularly unlikely because of the ban and immigration policies. You need more workers to sustain growth. You need their spending and you need their innovation.

    • Very true. While some are growth oriented ideas, many are antagonistic to growth. If he remains president, this may be remembered as the time America ceded its preeminent position in the world.

  7. Note to Readers: An article in Thd Guardian indicates a concern over hiring talent in the Oil industry given the travel ban and anti-Muslim rhetoric. Here is a quote from the piece:

    “The Trump administration is already having an impact on hiring decisions,โ€ said George Stein, managing director at Commodity Talent, a recruiting agency for oil companies. โ€œTwo of our international clients are considering basing foreign hires outside of the United States because of difficulties arising from the ban.โ€

  8. Note to Readers: Both The Guardian and The Fiscal Times had articles this week on the issue of whether the travel ban will hurt the US economy. This impact is being discussed more and more. The sad part is the ban solves very little and harms a great deal. If this was a data driven decision, the President would have known that.

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