Why aren’t you in Brussels?

After several days of being taken to the woodshed, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson was found walking the streets. And, he got quite an earful. One man said it clearly. “Why are you here? Why aren’t you in Brussels?”

The meaning is clear. Why aren’t you in Brussels negotiating a deal to leave the European Union? Whether you favor Brexit or not, leaving the EU without a deal would be disastrous. CEOs have been consistent in this message. To their credit, many of them do not favor leaving rhe EU. They see Brexit as dilutive to the British economy. Yet, leaving with no deal would be a bureaucratic fiasco. Think long lines of trucks at the border, both ways.

Sadly, the PM is not known to be a detailed person, not unlike the US president. So, when Boris tells people a “no-deal” Brexit is manageable, those words should not give anyone comfort, even pro-Brexit people. Going one step further, the same could be said of Parliament whose inability to manage Brexit has put the UK in this predicament.

So, I think the man on the street has it right. Prime Minister, get your fanny to Brussels. And, take some detail people with you. You will need them. Either get a deal done or don’t leave the EU.

The (nonpartisan) Concord Coalition projects debt to be over 100% of US economy

Followers of my blog know I am a broken record on doing something about the US debt and deficit. Below is a copy of a piece entitled “New CBO Report Projects Much Larger Debt Under Plausible Assumptions” by Joshua Gordon that was forwarded by The Concord Coalition.

“In a follow-up to the new Congressional Budget Office (CBO) baseline projections, the CBO released a report last week analyzing the effect that select policy alternatives would have on budget deficits and federal debt. CBO also produced an ‘alternative scenario’ that combines some of these different policy assumptions to create what we view as a more plausible budget baseline because it better reflects current policy rather than a strict application of current law.

The alternative scenario makes two major changes to the official baseline; one on the spending side and the other on the revenue side.

On spending, the main difference is that in making their baseline the CBO convention is to assume that discretionary spending — the spending on defense and non-defense programs controlled by the annual appropriations process — will increase only to keep pace with inflation when there are no existing spending caps in place (the caps were eliminated in the August budget deal). The alternative scenario assumes higher discretionary spending over the next ten years such that it remains constant as a share of the economy (6.3 percent of GDP) compared to the baseline’s assumption where spending drops to 5.6 percent of GDP by 2029. It’s a plausible assumption given the August budget deal and the fact that discretionary spending has never dropped below 6 percent of GDP.

The revenue difference between the alternative scenario and the baseline is the assumption that a future Congress and President will extend a number of different tax policies that are currently scheduled to expire. For example, the alternative scenario assumes that the major individual income tax provisions of the 2017 Tax Cut and Jobs Act that are currently scheduled to expire after 2025, will be extended. In addition, the alternative assumes further delays in taxes created by the Affordable Care Act that have been extended over-and-over again by Congress. Assuming that this behavior with regard to tax policy continues creates a more plausible revenue scenario.

The differences in assumptions leads to outlays being about $1 trillion higher and revenues $1.7 trillion lower over the 2020-2029 period. As a result, debt would grow from 79 percent of GDP to 104 percent in 2029, surpassing 100 percent of GDP in 2028 for the first time since immediately after World War II (1946). The debt in 2029 would be 8.8 percentage points of GDP higher than in the baseline. Deficits over the 10-year period would average 1 percent of GDP higher than in the baseline (5.7 percent instead of 4.7 percent).

While the numbers are sobering, nothing in the CBO’s report is groundbreaking. Instead, it should serve as a reminder that under current law the budget situation is getting worse and is unsustainable over the long term. And that even assumptions made about current law are likely too optimistic — because policymakers’ current policy preferences will tend to make things worse.”

We are at over $22 trillion in debt with the annual deficit for the fiscal year ending this month to be just beneath $1 trillion on an annual revenue base of about $3.4 trillion. In other words, we will be spending about $4.4 trillion this year.

This problem cannot be solved with just spending cuts nor can it be solved with just tax increases. The math will not work. We must have both. Please ask politicians what they plan to do about this ticking time bomb. If they give poor answers, do not vote for them. We must have a plan and the plan cannot be making the debt worse as has been done with the 2017 tax cut and recent spending bills.

Alleged Mark Twain quotes

Mark Twain is alleged to have said the following two quotes.

“It It is easier to fool people than convince them they have been fooled.”

“It is better to keep your mouth closed and let people think you are a fool than to open it and remove all doubt.”

Whether he is the author is moot, as they sure sound like they came out of his brain or mouth. Twain was not just an author, he was a fabulous and witty orator.

These quotes resonate as it alarms me how too many people read, listen and watch pseudo-news that tell them what they want to hear or see. I fault these pseudo-news outlets, salivating readers and watchers and politicians such as the president who know they can be loose with the truth.

As someone who is fiscally conservative and socially progressive, I do not mind people being more conservative or liberal than I. What I do mind is people spouting arguments from sources known for spin-doctoring, misinformation and disinformation. We must get away from hyper-rationalization of untruthful or even bizarre statements made by their party. With a very untruthful president and his sycophants, the rationalization is rampant.

We must be the navigators of our customer service, which includes our news. We must look at multiple sources that do not spend so much time on nonsensical conspiracy theories and provide errata statements when they get it wrong. Another sure sign of less-than-aurhentic news is the glee in what is being presented or an opinion meant to flavor what we just heard.

We must be truthseekers. It is not an easy job. Yet, if we don’t do our part, we might prove Mark Twain correct.

Note from Nebraska GOP State Senator

Last month, I sent an email to a Republican State Senator in Nebraska complimenting him on his political courage to be critical of his own party. For his courage, he received a letter from the Nebraska Republican Party inviting him to leave the party. Today, I received this email.

“Dear Keith,
It’s State Senator John McCollister here. I’m the Nebraska legislator who called out the complicity of the Republican Party in enabling white supremacy 3 weeks ago.

If you are receiving this message, you are one of the kind people who sent me a personal email. There have been literally thousands of messages and with so much going on, I haven’t been able to respond to everyone individually. I want you to know I’ve read your notes and they have touched my heart. I wanted to send you all a message here to keep you informed about what has been going on and future plans. To recap:

Three weeks ago I had enough. After yet another mass shooting linked to a white supremacist, I tweeted out the following thread:

The Republican Party is enabling white supremacists in our country. As a lifelong Republican, it pains me to say this, but it’s true. 

I of course am not suggesting that all Republicans are white supremacists, nor am I saying that the average Republican is even racist.’

Almost immediately, the post started gaining national attention. Prominent news anchors, celebrities and political figures all seemed to be talking about it and reposting. The night after, I was on CNN. A few days later, I was on Morning Joe:

None of this was planned, in fact it caught me quite off guard. State senators typically don’t attract much attention or controversy.

But I had to say something. The activities of this president are BEYOND the pale. Hate crimes are on the rise. Racism and discrimination have been mainstreamed. Just yesterday there was another mass shooting. I may be a registered Republican but I’m a human being first and clearly see what’s going on. Many want me to stay quiet. I will not be doing that.

In my remaining time in the Nebraska legislature, I will tell the truth about this president and about the viability of the two-party system. The GOP wasn’t always this way. We used to believe in fiscal responsibility and sustainability. We used to believe in environmentalism. We once stood up for civil rights.

I have a VISION for what our party can and should be and I want to keep spreading this vision. I want to use my new platform to have honest conversations about what is happening no matter how inconvenient it may be. I want to promote a more inclusive GOP.

If you want to join me on this quest, there are a few ways you can help. 🙂

#1. In my experience, convincing voters who’ve already made up their mind is a hard sell. Our efforts are better spent talking to non-voters or undecided voters. In the 2016 election, close to 40% of the voting-age population didn’t vote. Let’s change that in 2020. Let’s have conversations with friends, neighbors and go-workers so we can get out the vote.

#2. If you’re not already following my pages on Facebook and/or Twitter, please do so and help me SHARE posts when I release them. The larger our reach, the louder our message.

#3. If you want to make a contribution on my website, the proceeds will go to spreading this message in the biggest way we can. We will create more content. We’ll make graphics. We’ll be able to hire some smart folks who are savvy with the internet. The bigger our team is, the louder our megaphone will be and I intend to keep talking.

And that about summarizes everything. Thank you so much for your compassion. I wouldn’t be sending this message were it not for your letters of support. You give me strength.

-John McCollister

Nebraska State Senator

Copyright © 2019 McCollister for Legislature, All rights reserved.
You are receiving this email because you sent us a message.”

We need more elected officials to speak the important truths, especially when their party needs to do better. I applaud Senator McCollister for his courage and truthfulness. We all should.

And the band played on – letter to the editor

My local newspaper printed my letter to the editor based on the theme of a recent post. Please feel free to adapt and use it, if you agree with the concept.

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I feel like citing the song lyric “and the band played on” in reference to elected leaders ignoring problems which will only get worse. On climate change, environmental degradation, increasing US debt, aging infrastructure, and insufficient gun governance, we have ticking time bombs. The kids get what is needed on climate change, environment and guns. But, debt and infrastructure must also be dealt with. And, not addressing the former makes the latter harder.

These are the questions we must be asking our politicians. If they are evasive or give poor answers, do not vote for them. We don’t need a wall. We need safe bridges and railways.