140 Characters and Global Risk

This number equates to twenty words of seven letters or symbols. Or, twenty-eight words of five letters or symbols. Irrespective of the combination, 140 characters typed in impatience is not conducive to well-thought out communication.

Yet, when in the hands of an ego-maniacal, less informed than needed and thin-skinned man who does not filter his thoughts, it is dangerous. People react to these few words that cannot possibly reflect context and subtlety and, in many cases, should not be typed without much thought and input from expert advisors. It is a bumper sticker approach to policy statements and governance.

But, when these character limits are deployed with national security messages, they are a recipe for disaster. The author has been advised on more than one occasion by another country how troubling these communiques are, most recently by China about his tweet on North Korea.

If this author is intending to govern by tweet with his temperament, this should give every person on the planet pause. But, don’t take my word for it.

On the BBC World News America earlier this week, Ian Bremmer, the founder of the Eurasia Group, an organization who measures risk, said the greatest global risk this year is an independent or retrenching America from the global scene. Bremmer said it would be akin to removing the guard rails on the global highways.

This is the stated posture of the President-elect to look more within. Imagine that concept being executed in the hands of the same less-informed, ego-maniacal and temperamental tweeting man. What could possibly go wrong?

 

Ten Greatest Global Risks over Next 10 Years per World Economic Forum

Let’s face it, long term thinking is hard for most leaders and society in general. It is too far off, but we still cannot wait to plan as the cost and problems can get too large. The World Economic Forum recently produced a Global Risks Report – 2015, which highlights the greatest risks over the next eighteen months and over the next ten years.

Rather than focus on the next eighteen months, let me focus on the longer term, ten-year horizon, as the risks are far more dramatic in impact as many are planetary in scope.

  1. Water crisis
  2. Failure of climate change adaption
  3. Profound social instability
  4. Food crisis
  5. Extreme weather events
  6. High structural un- or under-employment
  7. Large-scale cyber attacks
  8. State collapse or crisis
  9. Major biodiversity and ecosystem collapse
  10. Failure of national governance

Water tops the list as it is becomingly an increasingly dear commodity worldwide. I have noted before our energy production must bring into the equation more the impact on water sources. Moving to renewable energy sources which are not water intensive is as important as their positive impact on climate change. And, climate change will only make water and other problems like the food crisis, extreme weather events, and ecosystem collapses even more problematic with increased droughts, forest fires and floods with stalled weather systems.

The profound social instability and high structural un- and under-employment are contributors to our global poverty problem. Other top ten risks are also contributors such as state or national governance failures or the climate impacted natural crises. Those in poverty tend to more impacted by these issues as they have so few choices. Plus, I would season the ability to address these issues with overall corruption, where monies, services and goods intended to help are steered to the pockets of leaders and oligarchies of influential people.

These are the questions we need to be asking politicians and candidates about. If they are unprepared to address these issues or deny their existence or importance, then we need to vote for other folks who are prepared. These problems are already rearing their ugly heads, so the time is fleeting on our ability to do things to address these problems.

A link to the 2015 Global Risks Report follows:

http://www.weforum.org/reports/global-risks-report-2015