Musings at the start of summer

The longest day in the Northern Hemisphere is upon us. Maybe with this extra daylight we can have more illumination on issues. It seems we have a bad habit in our country of governing off rhetoric rather real information.

Saying it more basically, we believe our own BS. It is puzzling why we would make decisions off stuff we made up. Yet, that gets to the heart of the matter. The authors of change don’t necessarily want to solve the problems. They just want to win the election game of optics.

A good example is the secretive Senate effort to develop a repeal and replacement bill for the ACA. The effort has several of the remaining Republican and all of the Democrat Senators up in arms. What is missing is open and honest debate. What is missing is open acknowledgement of Republican efforts to strangle the imperfect law by withholding money from insurance companies promised them to take on adverse selection (higher risk).

Another good example is withdrawing from the Paris Climate Change Accord where America abdicated a global leadership role. While the President and EPA Director tell us there is not consensus on man’s influence on climate change, they fail to tell us that there is an overwhelming consensus from the scientific community. They also fail to heed the recommendations of countless companies, cities and states to remain, including ExxonMobil and Royal Dutch Shell. The sad part is the job growth and investment in renewable energy is growing rapidly and large companies like Amazon. Google, IKEA, Walmart et al are leading the way.

Let’s hope our myopic leaders will use today’s extra sunshine to see the light.

The exact opposite of what is needed

Since tribal fervor gets in the way of good information sharing and debate, we end up with laws, bills and executive orders/ comments which are the exact opposite of what is needed. This troubles me greatly, as if you took the time to look at data and explained what the change would do, people would not be supportive of the change.

Here are a few working examples:

– Treating Muslim Americans poorly, blocking travel from Muslim countries, and criticizing the London Mayor who is an exemplar of successful Muslims in the western world make us less safer. Ostracizing Muslims feeds into the recruiting messaging for Islamic extremist groups; welcoming Muslims and involving them in conversations and diligence is making us safer.

– Defunding Planned Parenthood will increase the abortion rates, health care cost and poverty. Poverty is highly correlated with larger family size. Family planning reduces the number of unwanted pregnancies. Plus, women’s health for low income families improve which saves money.

– Cutting back on renewable energy investment and tax breaks will be dilutive to job increases and rural economies. Many of the solar and wind energy jobs are occurring in rural settings where they are needed. The market for solar and wind energy continues to rapidly grow as the prices fall. Investment in these areas is accretive to growth.

– Regulation is not the enemy. Inefficient and ineffective regulation are. Dodd Frank needs improvement, but we need to be mindful of the changes. The ACA needs improvement, not repeal. Very few industry leaders advocate for regulation – it does not mean they don’t need them, especially when greed exists. We need to govern our regulation either paring, repealing or improving where needed. Here is an example – when Erskine Bowles was asked to head the Small Business Administration he reduced the application for assistance from 42 pages to two.

– Pulling back from global leadership will make the world less safer. America helps provide guardrails to global crises. The more we abdicate responsibility, the less safe it becomes for America and the rest of the world. We must be engaged and collaborative.

I have many other examples. What do you think? What are your examples?

 

While we are asking questions

There will be a great deal written about Former FBI Director James Comey’s testimony under oath. I emphasize the last two words of the preceding sentence. The President and his advocates’ rebuttals will not be under oath, at least at this time, so we should remember this fact.

Yet, it got me to thinking about asking various people a question under oath to see how they would fare. In no particular order:

Senator Marco Rubio, you have bragged on playing a heavy role in the federal government stiffing insurance companies for taking on adverse risk under the ACA. Can you explain to Americans why they must suffer with higher insurance premiums for you to score political points?

Senator Mitch McConnell, The New York Times reported that just before the 2012 election, you had a report by the Congressional Research Service buried that concluded trickle down economics does not work. In light of the recent failures of that approach in Kansas, where tax rates have just been increased to pay for services, does that seem dishonest to hide such information from Americans, especially since the President’s tax plan had some of Kansas’ ideas?

Former President Barack Obama, do you feel remorse about not pushing the Simpson-Bowles Deficit Reduction plan back when it might have gotten some footing and we could have done more with our debt?

Former Senator and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while you may have reason to raise issues about the election, would you say that you ran a poor campaign, not focusing on states that you took for granted such as Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania while you tried to win states like Arizona? Do you feel you let your opponent speak to the disenfranchised voter more than you did?

Senator Ted Cruz, you single handedly shut down the government in October 2013, almost causing us to default on our debts until ten female senators broke the impasse. Do you feel that showed you as part of the problem with Washington? Why should we trust your judgment?

President Donald Trump, since you have been shown to lie about 70% of the time as a candidate and incumbent and your five biographers all note you have a problem with the truth, why should we believe what you say just about anything?

There are more folks I would like to ask questions of. Let me know some of yours.

 

Poverty is highly correlated with large families

We have a global poverty problem, but what may surprise some, the US has not escaped the problem. Our middle class has been squeezed, but unfortunately, gravity has caused too many of them to fall beneath or just above the poverty line.

There are many reasons for the decline, but it has been occurring over the last 45 years, so all politicians own this issue. Technology advances, globalization, stagnant wages, downsizing of union populations, costly healthcare, etc. are all contributing factors.

Yet, it should be noted that large family size and one parent families are highly correlated with increased poverty. These two factors should not be a revelation, but too many folks look past these causes to others. This a key reason for the importance of family planning to help families manage their family size and health.

Today, I saw a report that noted the US has more teen pregnancies than other western nations. A data point was cited (without a source) that 30% of teens in the 9th grade have sexual relationships increasing to 60% in the 12th grade. The report supported the practice of more holistic sex education in schools, an experiment being promoted in West Virginia, where 1 out of eight births are to teen mother.

The training speaks to more than abstinence and contraception. It speaks to   how to say no and not give in to pressure. It discusses sexual assault and STDs. It speaks to relationships and the role sex plays when folks are ready.

Family planning and sex education are key tools in fighting poverty. There is a causal relationship between family planning and fewer abortions, which should give  those against family planning some consolation, Rather than condemn or not fund these efforts, we should look at the data and support them.

Celebration for passing a bill may have been premature

With a White House eager to claim legislative victory, there was a celebratory bash after the Republican led House passed the AHCA by a squeaker of margins 217 to 213. The bill has been vilified by several advocacy groups like the AMA, American Cancer Society and AARP and it has still not been scored by the Congressional Budget Office. The bill is also dead in the water in the Senate “once it gets sent there.”

Wait a minute, the last sentence said “once it gets sent there.” To the surprise of some Republican House members, the AHCA bill has not yet been sent to the Senate. Why, you might ask? Since the House did not wait for the CBO to score the cost and impact of the bill on the numbers of uninsured, it cannot be included in the budgeting process, and would thus require 60 votes, not 51 to pass in the Senate. The whole idea was to sneak the bill through this process, so it did not need the super-majority of 60 votes, which it cannot achieve.

Unless the CBO scores this where it saves a threshold amount of the budget, it may not qualify. So, the House leadership has not yet sent the AHCA to the Senate. If they did and the CBO results were not favorable, the House would have to start over. Again, I should reiterate that this bill cannot get even the 51 votes needed due to the impact on Medicaid. As we speak, about two dozen state governors are beseeching the Senate about not harming Medicaid. Unlike the House, the Senate is actually listening.

So, the victory lap on mile 250 of the Indy 500, may have been premature. Voting on something without knowing its impact is not the wisest course of action and is unbecoming of a legislator we trust to do our homework.

 

I want to buy this

Little Donnie has always had money. Daddy made sure of that, but Daddy is no longer around. As he was walking down Main Street with his friend Paul, he pointed to the shiny bike in the window and said, “I want to buy that bike.”

“But, you don’t know how much it costs,” said Paul.

“It does not matter, I want it,” said Little Donnie.

“But, you have a bike and it just needs a little oil for the chain and air in the tires. Plus, others can ride if when you don’t.”

“That does not matter. I want it. Go buy it for me,” said Little Donnie.

“OK, but we still don’t know how much it costs and whether others can ride it,” said Paul.

“Just buy the thing or I will tell all my friends you were mean to me. Some of them are your friends, too. They will stop being your friend and some may beat you up, believe me,” said Little Donnie.

“OK, but my big brother Mitch is not going to like this and he may make you give it back. We at least should know what it costs.”

“I will deal with Mitch later as I really want this bicycle,” said Little Donnie, “and I always get what I want.”

ACA truths Republicans don’t want you to know

The Affordable Care Act is an imperfect and complex law, but it is actually working pretty good. It does need improvements, but a few of its imperfections have been heightened by our Republican friends in Congress and in state legislatures. Yet, they do not want you to know about these actions, some of which are quite devious and harmful to Americans. To be frank, this subterfuge frustrates me as people are harmed as the GOP tried to waylay the law.

What has not been reported very much in main stream news is Senator Marco Rubio’s successful efforts to stiff insurance companies. These companies were promised additional funding for taking on excessive bad risk, called adverse selection. This was done successfully when the Medicare Part D plans were rolled out. By stiffing the carriers, the insurance companies had to raise premiums even more than they otherwise would have. Some even left the exchanges as this action hurt their bottom line. Let me say this plainly. Senate Republicans screwed Americans with higher premiums to try and strangle the ACA. Rubio even bragged about this on the campaign, so please Google “Senator Marco Rubio and risk corridors” to read about what he did.

On the state level, 19 Republican led states chose not to expand Medicaid, a key component of the ACA. 31 states who did so are seeing fewer personal bankruptcies and better hospital accounts receivables. Republican John Kasich, who expanded Medicaid as Governor in Ohio and ran for President, said “Medicaid expansion is a no brainier.” I would have likely voted for Kasich had he won the GOP nomination.

Then there is the naysaying that has been facilitated by the 50 plus repeal votes. Far too many folks never gave the ACA the benefit of the doubt. It is imperfect and the exchanges were rolled out horribly, for which I blame former President Obama. Yet, this law has made a huge difference in the lives of many Americans.

Finally, what is ironic is the ACA is built off a Republican idea. This is a key reason Republicans don’t have a good replacement. In fact, former Senator Jim DeMint, the initial Tea Party leader, strongly advocated Romneycare, on which the ACA is loosely based, for the whole country. He even wrote a letter to President Bush advocating for it. Yet, when Romney ran for President in 2012, DeMint said both Romneycare and the ACA were unconstitutional. This hypocritical change of heart can be easily found by Googling “Senator DeMint and Romneycare.”

People need to know the truth. This is not false news as our President likes to claim. Please research these facts and read as much as you like. Then, ask your representatives to start governing with real information and look to help Americans. I strongly recommend we do not repeal the ACA and improve the law. To do otherwise, is poor form for those who hindered it at the expense of Americans.