Exodus of Republicans

In an article yesterday by Jason Lange and Andy Sullivan of Reuters called “Analysis: Exodus of Republican voters tired of Trump could push party further right,” the departures away from the now Trump party are growing. Here are a few paragraphs, with a link to the article below.

A surge of Republicans quitting the party to renounce Donald Trump after the deadly Capitol riot could hurt moderates in next year’s primaries, adding a capstone to Trump’s legacy as president: A potentially lasting rightward push on the party.

More than 68,000 Republicans have left the party in recent weeks in Florida, Pennsylvania and North Carolina, crucial states for Democrats’ hopes of keeping control of Congress in the mid-term elections in 2022, state voter data shows. That’s about three times the roughly 23,000 Democrats who left their party in the same states over the same time period.

Compared to the Republicans who stayed put, those who fled were more concentrated in the left-leaning counties around big cities, which political analysts said suggested moderate Republicans could be leading the defections.

If the exodus is sustained, it will be to the advantage of candidates in the Republican Party’s nomination contests who espouse views that play well with its Trump-supporting base but not with a broader electorate.

That could make it harder for Republican candidates to beat Democrats in November, said Morris Fiorina, a political scientist at Stanford University.

‘If these voters are leaving the party permanently, it’s really bad news for Republicans, Fiorina said.

Most of the defectors switched to having no party affiliation or joined a minor political party, though many registered as Democrats, according to publicly available voter registration data that is regularly updated by states….

Diana Hepner, 76, a retired attorney in Florida’s Nassau County near Jacksonville, described herself as a fiscal conservative who was turned off by Trump’s rhetoric.

‘I hung in there with the Republican Party thinking we could get past the elements Trump brought,’ she said. ‘Jan. 6 was the straw that broke the camel’s back.’

Hepner, who joined the Democratic Party, hopes she can be a centrist influence on its nomination contests.

The above should be a clarion call to those who now call the Trump party home. Yet, these calls and others made by Republicans pushing back on the seditious former president, have been largely written off by the MAGA base. At some point, there must be reckoning.

While I firmly believe the former president’s political career is over, his influence will remain. As long as the party base buys into the conspiracy and lies he (and his sycophants) peddles, he will have a voice. As I have noted before, the best thing to do about the former president is to ignore him.

Analysis: Exodus of Republican voters tired of Trump could push party further right (msn.com)

39 thoughts on “Exodus of Republicans

    • I’ll only partially agree with you. If he’s indicted, dies, starts handing out 1,000 USD checks walking around town, that sort of thing, it’s reasonable to cover it. Completely ignoring him – or any one – feels like an invitation to do crimes in the dark.

      • Since he moved, I’m now many states at a distance from him and can’t track him. Presumably the journalists will make a compromize between us, and report on facts and not any of his opinion-noize.

  1. I’m really looking forward to the day when they don’t bother asking Trump for a statement/opinion on anyone or anything. He spews nothing but lies and hate, why give him the platform? It will be interesting to see how the political party thing shakes out.

    • Laura, so true. This is not a new observation, but do you remember the metaphor of him walking into an after dinner party at one of the G20 meetings and everyone was sitting with others and avoiding eye contact with him? With no one to sit with, he walked to over Putin’s table without an interpreter. My guess is a prepared Putin was able to misinform the underinformed president. Keih

  2. The Party is now Trump’s party and rightfully so. The moderates are really liberals with a conscience. They are yesterday’s democrats. They make up 12% of the party and they have done squat since 1988. The Republican Party has not been the Republican Party since Reagan and the 88% of us do not care that they are leaving because they were never really there. The hatred of Trump is a colossal embarrassment because it is all based on lies. Yes, the election was stolen but liberal repubs don’t care because of hatred. They disavow the Constitution because of hatred. They are allowing the worst policies because of hatred. Here’s a clue for you. Now real Republicans hate you and so do democrats. You are in a nowhere land. Purgatory. And you get what you deserve for lying to us for the past 33 years.

    • Mr. Dey, I will leave your comment, but could not find much to agree with it. In my view, the former president is the most corrupt, deceitful and seditious president in my lifetime including Richard Nixon who was a crook. As AG William Barr said to the former president in a meeting in December before being asked to leave, “Mr. president, the claims of election fraud are bulls**t.” Plus, why did the former president and his sycophants lose 59 out of 60 court cases and every recount, many involving Republicans judges, election officials, Secretaries of State and Governors. So, per Occam’s Razor theory, is it easier to believe there is a vast conspiracy against the former president, or that a person well documented as untruthful is lying yet again? Keith

      • Lmao…the first cases to actually be presented evidence are in. SCOTUS as we speak. What corruption? The Russian hoax? Lmao. The Ukraine phone call we all heard? Lmao. The fact that SCOTUS ruled he was able to keep his businesses running while President? Or maybe it the last failed impeachment based on fallacy…again we heard his words. So I really would like to know what corruption you have in mind…mean tweets? Lmao. I live you butt hurt fake Republicans. You don’t actually want anything done and you support those that got rich off of being a politician while a Christian President donated all his income to charity. But meanwhile, we the supporters are glad you are getting your lame asses out of the party.
        https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/gop-rapidly-becoming-blue-collar-party-here-s-what-means-n1258468

      • Mr. Dey, help me understand why inspector generals and duty and oath bound diplomats, congress people, senators and officials push back on the former president knowing they will be vilified, some will lose their jobs, and some will get death threats, yet they do it anyway? By the way, I left the Republican Party thirteen years ago to become an independent long before the former president decided to use the party as a lever. I won’t comment on Russia or Ukraine which were not hoaxes, but will say the former president planned and staged the voter fraud story for six months. What he did after the election was predicted and predictable. What frustrates me is too many believe his BS. I know I won’t convince you, nor will you be able to the same. Best regards, Keith

      • Do you believe Trump colluded with Russia? Or that Hunter is just misunderstood? Or that all the violence last summer was White Supremist? Or that Trump condoned the Violence at the Capitol? And still believe that Biden got 20 million more votes than anyone in history? Talk about wild conspiracy theories, lol.

      • Mr. Dey, what I find interesting is the Senate Intelligence Committee went further than the Mueller Report, which did find lies, inappropriate contact with Russians and credible obstruction (I did read the report). The Senate Intelligence report said there was recurring contact between a Russian asset and a campaign official, but that did not get as much airplay when announced this past summer. So, yes I do think the former president had inappropriate ties to Russian folks – was their collusion or just a beneficial relationship, that I do not know?

        As for Ukraine, I do think the former president tried to extort the Ukraine president for personal gain. I have concerns over an unvetted shadow diplomacy through Rudy Giuliani as did the many credible people who testified. But, here is what I have never gotten answer to – if the Ukraine call was so perfect, why did the White House try to bury the call? Many fine people lost their jobs over testifying and they knew they would, but did it anyway.

        Joe Biden won this election. Chris Krebs, the head of cyber security for the election said it was the most secure election in our history, but he of course got fired for saying so. Krebs noted the paper trail documented the votes far better than the 2016 election. The former president planned the voter fraud story for six months – he hobbled the post office, he defamed the mail-in process (saying for months he would be cheated), he got some state legislatures to tighten the mail-in process, he told his voters to vote in person and then hired 1,000 attorneys. His five biographers said four years ago that Donald Trump could not take losing an election and would say it was stolen – this was four years ago. His false narrative was predicted and predictable.

        And, on top of all of this, the former president’s lies about the rampant fraud were believed, he invited the extreme followers to come to DC and he revved them up and pointed them at the capitol building – that is sedition as he incited an insurrection in another branch of government. It matters not what party was in power, this is simply not right. The former president should be held accountable. It saddens me that only ten GOP representatives and 7 GOP senators voted to do so. That is what I believe. Keith

    • Brian Day, maybe third time’s the charm: do you think Biden won the election fairly and squarely? This requires one of either two words: Yes or No. There will be a follow up question.

      • No I do not, at least in my state. Many election laws were broken. I can’t speak to fraud, but I can speak to the whole push for mail in ballots. Wisconsin doesn’t have a mail in ballot system. It has an absentee ballot system, which has very specific requirements and voter ID verification. Several County clerks took it upon themselves to change laws which they didn’t have the authority to change. This was brought to the Wisconsin Supreme Court agreed. In Wisconsin, clerks certify and send to the Wisconsin Election Commission, an appointed board. They certified. The legislator sent another set of electors that did not certify. So in Wisconsin, Biden did not win fairly or by the established laws. So in my state, I can easily claim what I claim to be true, accurate and verifiable. I do not know the other state laws, but I do know that one County in Michigan, 6,000 votes were switched and that is still currently under investigation. Fraud may not be the term I would use, but definitely laws were broken. Enough that it should be investigated and laws and consequences should be identified for future elections. And sorry I don’t hang on here for hours a day so not answering wasn’t intentional

      • What does that mean, following ‘the law’? You present this as if it means good reasons to believing the election results were fraudulent. That’s not true.

        ‘The law’ has been very clear on this issue about determining if the 2020 election was indeed fraudulent… if you consider all the electoral officers, State election officials, state courts, even the Supreme Court as representing ‘the law’. What is true is that that fraud in the 2020 election was extremely rare compared to every other election similarly examined. You seem quite to believe otherwise and quite willing to wave ‘the law’ aside in this case and only because it suits you but call on it to discredit voters you assume swayed the election towards Biden. You can’t have it both ways.

        In fact, there is no evidence of widespread voter fraud in 2020 necessary to swing even Wisconsin. Failure to completely mark a ballot envelope is not ‘fraud’. Fact. But that’s what every single challenge has revealed in court and under oath – no credible evidence for fraud – but with a single verdict for a procedural challenge that affected zero votes. What we do find, however, is that 33 states under Republican governing are now considering more than 165 bills to restrict voting that affects Democrats. This is the same ‘law’ you are okay with, I guess. This number is more than a factor greater than last year (4X), and they are intended to stop mail-in voting, increase voter ID requirements, and make it harder to register to vote. Colorado, Hawaii, Oregon, Utah and Washington might disagree, however, in that most of their election is done this way and has been for some time with no claims of widespread voter fraud. In effect, this is the Republican attempt yet again to expand the purge of voter rolls most likely to mail in a ballot for the Democrats. This is the only ‘law’ you favour. You seem unconcerned that 35 Republican senators represent 70 million fewer voters than 35 Democratic senators… but you’re good with this as long as ‘the law’ favour Republicans to undemocratically hold power.

        My point here is that only by gaming the voting system – ie ‘the law’ – can Republicans have a shot at power or, failing that, the ability to impede the majority Democrat’s ability to make law! And the way this is done on the one hand is to abuse the law as it has been legislated by a vast minority of the population affiliated with the Republicans and make it as one sided as possible while, on the other hand, completely and utterly ignore and excuse the breaking of the law by the enablers of Trump – as well as Trump himself – to commit electoral fraud! You’re okay with all of this. You have a very strange notion of using the law as a shield against and a bludgeon on Democrats while waving it aside to maintain power by breaking it for those you favour.

        What I’m not reading from you is any desire to respect the principle of electoral fairness, meaning one citizen, one vote. That would spell doom for the Republican party, of course, but that’s really the way most of the democracies in the world operate. Only in the US do you find such a complex and difficult maze of legal requirements with all kinds of forms and paperwork that must be filled out just so and submitted in the right way by the right time before lining up for hours upon hours to vote where polls are few if in a Democratic area but plentiful in in a Republican area. That’s what ‘the law’ used this way becomes: a political and partisan tool to create dysfunction and enable undemocratic results that favour only one party.

        What we do know for sure is that a significant group of Trump Republicans have already been found guilty of crimes to influence the election and cause fraud. You don’t seem to care about this breaking of ‘the law’ in this case to enable political power to be kept illegally by Trump; you’re only concerned that a ridiculously difficult gamed system to disenfranchise as many Democratic voters as possible is used as the club it was always meant to be and then pretend you have any regard for the law at all.

        That’s not reasonable, Brian Dey. That’s being loyal to party over country. You should be ashamed.

        I suspect you have no real-life real-world scenario in your mind whatsoever how a Democrat could fairly and squarely win the Presidency. Be honest with yourself. There’s the dysfunction of your country right there in you. And it’s going to take people like you to change back into a loyal citizen. I don’t know if you’re up to the task of doing what your country asks of you.

      • In my state, yes if you want to call it fraud. But words mean something and fraud isn’t what im suggesting. Could it be fraud, whereas people committed crimes by falsifying their identity? Could be. Laws were not followed. Deleting yourself as a permanent disabled invalid requires documentation that you are unable, ever, to vote in person. There again, words mean something. To be considered permanently disabled and cannot travel requires documentation. Clerks, without legislative action declared by the U.S. Constitution, decided that fear of Covid justified letting thousands claim the status with no documentation. That is a violation of the law. The individuals that claimed that status but did not have the legal status committed fraud. Poll workers not requiring identification violated state law. That is not fraud. I could go deeper, but have provided some examples and the Wisconsin Supreme Court upheld.

      • This goes to the point of whether one honors the principle of one citizen one vote or using the law as a tool to try to stop this. You seem to continue to support the latter. This should raise a concern in your mind that the direction you are taking is intentionally anti-democratic rather than helping make the principle in action less onerous.

      • Laws are in place to assure one citizen one vote. And it should alarm you that that’s not the case. The only way to assure one citizen one vote is by voter identification. In Wisconsin, we cannot assure that was the case. In your world it relies 100% on trust, however, society isn’t very trustworthy, especially when it comes to power. Mine is not in democratic as you say, but reasonable given the stakes. I guarantee, if the outcome waa a Trump victory, we would still be here today as the democrats were in 2000, 2004 and 2016.

      • It is the case. In fact, there is negligible evidence of any voter fraud. In fact, voter lists match ballots cast. In fact, the Republicans have spent much time and energy creating thee FICTION that there is a need for ever-more restrictive voter ID requirements. In fact, Republican legislators in swing states and districts with sizable black or Hispanic populations push the hardest for voter ID laws.

        You hide behind ‘the law’ passed to restrict as much as possible Democrat votes while, and exactly the same time, ignoring blatant attacks on the democratic process itself by those you consider the ‘home team’. Rather than aid and ease the simple task of one person casting one vote, you rationalize and excuse demonstrable evidence-driven cases of gross abuse and criminal partisan activity. This is diametrically opposite to the democratic principle at stake (regardless of which party pursues this deplorable goal), which makes your position to promote loyalty to party above that to patriotism to a democratic nation and the Constitution upon which it operates. Why you think this is okay makes you very much part of the problem, which is why I say it falls to you to examine what principles you are actually demonstrating by your active support. This should open your eyes… if you actually care about country and the support of the secular and ethical principles upon which it was founded. If you don’t care, then by all means continue trying to do your level best to tear down and destroy what previous generations fought so hard to erect on your behalf. If that’s the legacy you think matters most, then you have no position other than hypocrisy to criticize others who you see doing the same thing. Reap what you sow.

      • Lmao, so in your your eyes, hiding behind the Constitution is bad. See, that is why I call your party loony. Okay, let’s scrap requirements of ID on everything. No drivers license, no deed to identify for purchasing a gun, no need to buy prescription drugs, to go to a bar. We should just trust that everything is going to be okay. Everybody is honest and no one steals identify. Heck, get rid of the social security number while your at it. But see democrats have a problem because they do cheat and their is voter fraud and the politicians no it. Heck, you don’t even have to be American to vote. Republicans have no problem providing an ID for any of the aforementioned. If it’s the law, no problem. Nothing to hide. It’s laughable that you say hiding…what are you hiding that you can’t produce a simple ID to vote? See that is why we have laws. To verify. Nothing would stop a person from voting multiple times, be a a non-citizen or even ballot dumps. Everything in life has rules, and voting should be under the utmost scrutiny because of the immense power it gives and because of the right to vote. Under my system, the legal system, I can verify with 100% certainty if an election is honest. Under yours and the democrats, you can’t. Sorry, I’ll stick with the rule of law everyday of the week.

      • Oh, I’m all for a standard, simple, and accurate voter ID. There are many ways and means of achieving just this, including standardized mail-in ballots. That’s not just reasonable but responsible. In fact, here in Canada I can count on taking less than 5 minutes to vote in all elections. It’s easy, simple, and straightforward. The level of fraud is next to zero. One might think everyone would want such a electing system but not the Republicans; Republicans want to stop the ‘wrong’ kind of people from voting and so use absurd levels of registration and ever-increasing levels for voter ID requirements for one reason and one reason only: to suppress the Democrat vote. You know it. I know it. Every citizen in the US and most literate people in the world know it. But you presume – because you are a fervent believer in the righteousness of all things Republican versus anything Democrat – that there are only two competing camps here. There aren’t; there’s one country deeply divided by partisan politics. That’s the dysfunction you keep on supporting and rationalize your righteousness to do so. I keep raising and you keep deflecting my point about acting on behalf of the democratic principle rather than your never-ending stream – fact or fiction – of rationalizations to keep the country as deeply divided and dysfunctional as you are able.

      • Brian, I must confess I am puzzled that your position on the importance of following the law is at odds with your support for someone who has long believed laws do not apply to him. The former president settled a court case for housing discrimination, then had to be taken back to court for his failure to comply with the terms. He also was court ordered to preserve an artistic facade to a building he bought for a museum, but he hired workers to strip in down the facade in the middle of the night. But, what unnerves me the most is how many of his 4,600 lawsuits before the election were designed to stiff people – contractors, painters, landscapers, etc. The attorney Thomas Wells I mentioned noted Trump invariably claimed bad service to screw people. What Trump did as former president is no different than what he did in private life, which is why I could not vote for him. Laws do matter. Doing things the right way matters. Treating people with dignity matters. I would need define the former president using any of these terms. Keith

    • Mr. Dey, name calling is not an argument. Here is what I struggle with. Thomas Wells, an attorney who worked for Trump wrote in 2016 that “Donald Trump lies every day, even about things of no consequence.” Michael Cohen, Trump’s attorney and fixer, testified under oath to Congress “Donald Trump is a racist, he is a con-artist and he is a cheat.” Former Trump Secretary of Defense General James Mattis said “Donald Trump does not even try to unite us.” Inspectors General who took oaths raised concerns about improprieties in the Trump White House and they got fired or reassigned. I looked, but none were wearing tin foil hats. Keith

      • Michael Cohen is not exactly a poster child for truth. I apologize Gor the name calling but if you support Trump, you are called everything in the book and more. Gets real frustrating. I don’t know Thomas Well, but much of what has been called lies is exaggeration, according to Reince Priebus, former chief of staff and personal friend of mine. Lies have come from all directions yet only the Trump lies are called out. Here is a clue. All politicians lie. It’s when the lies become criminal is the problem, like the phony Steele Dossier. Or if the lie is a cover up. The racist claim is what gets me because that whole case has been one of omission. Like at Charlottesville. Much of what was claimed was because only part of the story was told. Just like with the second impeachment. And with Mattis, we was not happy about troop withdrawals, and the Turks and Syria. Did Trump lie about collusion. No. Did he lie about the Ukraine phone call? No. Priebus put it to me like this. Trump did not act like a politician, he acted like a CEO, and Washington insiders hated that. They were use to advising, not being told. That is the Presidents call on how he chooses to lead. History tells us that Teddy Roosevelt was far harder on his cabinet and his advisors. He called the press liars and alienated almost everyone in DC. Truman and LBJ were admitted racists. Well documented. We’re any of those three horrible presidents? Teddy is on Rushmore, Truman ended WWII and LBJ signed the Civil Rights Act. Because people separated personality from policy. But in this touchy feely world of political correctness, Trump had been viciously attacked. Believe it or not, I was once where you are. But then he got elected, and one thing he was honest with was enacting his agenda which were his supporters agenda. And his policies worked. The economy was booming. Then Covid hit. And he beat the impeachment and all hell broke loose. You don’t have to like him or support him, but the lengths that those that hate him are bringing us to the brink of Civil War. And Biden is only fueling the fire. And Cohen was wearing orange…for lying. Go figure.

      • Brian, thanks for the more civil tone. Michael Cohen is no poster child, I agree, but he got in trouble for lying to Congress before to save the former president. Now, when he tells the truth about the former president his words are discounted. The other thing he said that got less press is he sent over 500 cease and desist orders to people and businesses to not release information on the former president. So, his job was to fix problems the former president waded into.

        I have lamented the press reporting on every lie the former president says as it makes them more normative. I wish they would focus on the bigger lies that affect policy. I cannot speak to the combative tone toward him, but say the former president is known for being combative and overbearing to get his way. To me, he wants a mud fight as he does not take the time to study issues.

        He is by the far the most untruthful politician I have ever witnessed and that is borne up by fact-checking and excellent reporting in two-time Pulitzer Prize winner Bob Woodward’s book “Fear” based on 750 hours of interview, as well as others.

        Top of mind, here are few lies that are impactful:

        – the Chinese pay for the tariffs. He has said this about fifteen times and each time, economists say US importers pay the tariffs and usually pass on the cost to customers.
        – he made a change to defund a reimbursement to insurers to pay for a written commitment to subsidize co-pays and deductibles for people in the ACA making less than 2 1/2 times the poverty limit saying it would only affect insurer profits. That is simply an untrue statement, as insurers honored their commitment, premiums and the premium subsidy went up the next year and the CBO said the deficit would increase by $10 billion per annum.
        – he tweeted that he and his generals made a change to their transgender policy at 9:05 am, while said generals waited downstairs to brief him at 10 am on the options. He wasted their time and jumped the gun. This is was when James Mattis said he does not take orders from a tweet.
        – his biggest lie is he created the economy we benefitted under before the pandemic. The economy was in its 91st consecutive month of economic growth, the stock market had more than doubled, and we had 2 million plus jobs growth per annum for six straight years. To his credit, it continued, but after the sugar rush of the tax law change, the levels of growth fell back to the levels under Obama. Presidents get too much credit and too much blame for the economy, but if we are to lay laurels at his feet, then they should also be laid to Obama’s feet.

        These are just examples and there are many to choose from. All politicians exaggerate and even lie. The former president laps the field and is persistent with his lying. He did not win the election, but what is sad to me is he starts to believe his own BS. Every election has pockets of problems that are looked at. This one was no different, but he and his sycophants have used these examples to aggrandize a massive fraud scheme which he has, of course, been unable to prove. What happened on January 6 was god-awful, but it would not have happened if Donald Trump was not president. It is that simple.

        Thanks again for your time. Keith

  3. Keith! An award of level-headedness for handling that commentary. Kudos to you. Our conservative party, of which my husband was a participant for many years, swung too far out of kilter to a point he could no longer support it. He still doesn’t align with their views. Fortunately, in Canada we have other parties in the running, plus I think our overall system of voting is different.

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