The pandemic risk is exponential, not arithmetic

I read today in The Charlotte Observer the president called the North Carolina governor asking for full opening of the Republican National Convention (RNC) with no social distancing or masks required. Think about this. He has the nomination. He just needs the delegates to vote on it. Yet, he is advocating the gathering of Republicans which heighten the risk by people who believe him when he says these protocols are not needed.

Pandemics work exponentially, not arithmetically. Let’s just say 0.5% of the people at the RNC get infected. That is 250 people who expose people serving food, ushering, securing, guiding them around Charlotte. That is 250 people who take the risk back to their communities to expose their families, friends and communities. On February 28, a night the president still called the Coronavirus a hoax, we had the first recorded American death due to COVID-19. We now are passed 105,000 on May 31, three months later. The question to ask is it worth 250 people infected in late August, that will cause a much large number of deaths come the day of the election?

I want Trump supporters to realize the risk the president is placing on the Republican party and others just so he can hear applause at the RNC. Yet, many citizens are smarter than this president and other politicians. While masks being worn by Democrats and Independents exceed 80%, 58% of Republicans are wearing masks, which means more are than are not. So, if this convention occurs without limits, will they come? If they do have the RNC, just maybe only the delegates and a few supporters actually show up; that would help the exposure immensely, but not rid ourselves of it.

Let me update a few ratios in closing. As of today, the US has 5% of the global population and 28% of the COVID-19 deaths. Thinking we solved this problem is a huge mistake in overconfidence and is yet more evidence of misinformation to gloss over the problem. Those US deaths tally 105,000 and counting as of May 31. Remember, we just crossed 100,000 last week. The summer weather will help, but we must keep our social distancing, keep good hand washing hygiene, wear masks in stores, in spite of what some influencers may tell you. It is only your and your family’s health we are talking about.

10 thoughts on “The pandemic risk is exponential, not arithmetic

  1. Hello Keith. It is as you say, all because of his need to feed his ego at any cost. He runs on his emotions, needs, and wants. He has no concern if people die because of it, he figures he is worth it. Hugs

    • Scottie, everything else is secondary to stroking his ego. What he fails to understand, he would be seen in a better light if he actually was a leader for all and not demonize half the country. Keith

    • True. This is why I am using the percentages relative to the world. As for the exponential growth, CNN ran a compilation timeline of Trump comments side by side to the growing statistics. It is a fascinating presentation of the president’s misinformation since January. Our friend Scottie ran a post with this video. Keith

  2. Note to Readers: Here is an update as of June 5, 2020:

    “American fatalities reached 109,731. They were higher by 1,050, a bigger increase than the day before, as deaths continue to rise at a rate of over 1,000 a day. U.S. COVID-19 deaths are 27% of the world’s total. Note that the number of deaths per day is falling rapidly in some states and rising rapidly in others. For example, confirmed cases in hard-hit New York State reached 375,133, while deaths rose a modest 54 to 24,133. Just a few weeks ago, people were dying by the hundreds there each day.”

    COVID-19 is starting to escalate in other countries heretofore less impacted.

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