Nate Silver is the genius behind 538, one of the most accurate predictors of election results. 538 weights various polls based on their relative veracity. What his polls showed in 2016, after the late Comey announcement, that while the median favored Clinton winning, Trump could win within acceptable standard deviation. People focus too much on the median and not the range.
With this background, Silver said something of import recently, that many of us have said less succinctly. He said the COVID-19 contagions that are cropping in schools and colleges are both “predicted and predictable.”
When people get together without strict adherence to social distancing and mask wearing, exposure to COVID-19 will occur. And, the virus spreads exponentially, not arithmetically. This means when ten people get it, they infect ten more, who infect ten more…This is why the president was forewarned of the pandemic risk in January by US intelligence and why his misinformation and mishandling is so problematic.
Let me go further. If all people don’t wear masks, socially distance, wash hands and act with some common sense, COVID-19 will be with us much longer. I know we want to get back to normal, but managers, owners, deans, school executives, and elected officials must understand that corralling the virus cannot occur unless we all do our part. Even if a vaccine is created, a recent survey said only about 70% of Americans would take it.
This is why telling people the truth is so critical. Only then, will people follow instruction. And, sadly in the absence of truth tellers who must be supported not demeaned, conspiracy sources get listened to. As an example, measles had been eradicated in the US, until the anti-vaxxers spread their conspiracy information and now it is back.
Further, unless we have a president who tells the truth, we will not solve many problems. And, as an epidemiologist and historian said, telling the truth is mission one in dealing with a pandemic.
musingsofanoldfart 
Well said Keith. The truth is the only way forward..
Hugs
Thanks David. I did hear Factcheckers noted the president averaged one untruth every three minutes in his speech. Keith
But Keith, don’t you remember? According to the Turd this virus is only a Democratic effort to discredit him. Personally I always thought he was doing a pretty good job of it himself, but now? God help us all! Killing off our children and grandchildren seems to be the new way of making sure there will be less opposition if they are all Democrats.
This is the saddest era I have lived thru and of course I haven’t lived thru it all yet. As things stand now I can foresee at least another year of it, possibly two if people continue to disregard the health professionals and instead listen to a demented demi-god who would be God. And all in the name of greed and laziness on the part of the American public.
Kentucky Angel, it will be here for awhile. Speaking of greed, Silver had another comment that was even more indicting. He said the colleges and universities could be accused of a “bait and switch.” He said tuition is paid up front, so promising open campuses with precautions got the fees in the door. His main point was solid, but this added comment does give you pause. Keith
Yep I’ve been reading some of that in our paper, especially as it pertains to University of Kentucky where some of the students are demanding at least part of their money back. They paid for dormitories that are not even open and as far as I know the same is happening at all of them. I’m unhappy with a lot of places for even having face to face classes. Yesterday there were 107 children among the newly reported positive cases in Kentucky. Classes have been resuming for a couple of weeks in different parts of the state. I’m glad mine are all past school age, but worry about the youngest grandson who is still in high school. He’s mainly being home schooled — I think, both parents being teachers, but his favorite class is welding and that has to be taught in a place other than the dining room table.
I would truly hate to have to deal with COVID-19 issues with school age children. Ours are grown. It is such a dilemma. I understand fully about your grandson’s inability to be in his favorite class.
Predicted and predictable … indeed so, as are many other things that are being largely ignored … until they reach crisis stage. This is what happens when there is no leadership, nobody we can trust. Sigh.
Jill, the ones we could trust got shown the door. The ones who cried foul got shown the door. The ones who took an oath and shared concerns got shown the door. And, the ones who were supposed to protect these folks held it open. Keith
You are exactly right … the ones who were actually doing their job either left in disgust or were given the boot. Can’t have any little shred of honesty creeping in now, can we? Sigh.
Jill, again what is lost on Americans, is not can Trump win, it is he should not win. His followers buy hook, line and sinker what he is peddling. If he wins, autocracy wins, truth loses. Critics of the president will be punished. America loses. Keith
Note to Readers: Per CHARLOTTE, N.C. (WBTV) – Two attendees tested positive for COVID-19 and were potentially exposed to approximately 14 people at the Republican National Convention in Charlotte last weekend, according to Mecklenburg County officials. This is how it happens.
I think the Tulsa pep rally for Trump had six COVID-19 cases on Trump staff and it has been reported this is where Herman Cain may have picked up the illness and eventually pass away. Three weeks after the rally, Oklahoma reported an uptick in COVID-19 cases.
Update: Per Reuters, an update follows:
“Twitter feed of Mecklenburg County, North Carolina, where Charlotte is located, said two convention attendees and two event support staff had tested positive and all were ‘immediately isolated.'”
Note to Readers: This title could apply to the US president on any issue. The following are predicted and predictable patterns:
– BLM protestors are all thugs per The Donald
– Pro athletes should just play the game like gladiators; their opinions are not welcome
– Critics who have worked with the president are not known by the president or are losers
– Critics who have testified or written reports that are critical of White House actions must be removed, even if that is their job such as Inspectors General
– News that is bad is “fake”
– Good things he did, bad things he blames others
– if the news is bad, say it isn’t
If you put $5 into a jar every time he does the above, you could have bought a new car. Keith
Note to Readers: Again the following news is predicted and predictable:
-Dozens of Secret Service agents have “been sickened or sidelined” over the past two months after coming in contact with people infected with coronavirus, The Washington Post reported.
-The agents continue to protect President Donald Trump and Vice President Mike Pence, as their campaign continues to host in-person gatherings and experts warn they’ll likely contribute to a surge in coronavirus.
-Multiple Secret Service members were ordered to self-quarantine when several campaign staffers tested positive amid a July campaign rally. Four people tested positive during this week’s RNC events.