Sometimes you have to go for it

Yesterday, golfer Gary Woodland won the US Open at Pebble Beach. For non-golf fans, I will be brief on the golf part. What was most memorable, Woodland decided on a key moment to not play it safe, but be aggressive and play to win. He hit an absolutely brilliant shot that led to a birdie on a par five and put him two shots ahead of the two-time defending champion.

As a former athlete who was limited in talent to playing on high school teams, the act of “going for it,” is an act of courage. You may fall on your face, but by taking a risk, even if it is a measured one, it may make all the difference. Why does the best basketball player usually take the key final shot when the other team is expecting him to do so? Because if you don’t and fail, you may regret not going with your best.

And, as one star basketball player said, I try to take the last shot because I can handle failure better than others. That last statement is vital. Taking a risk is a lot easier if you know you can handle a negative outcome.

There is a great line from the movie “We bought a zoo,” with Matt Damon. His older brother taught him “all you need is twenty seconds of courage.” I think that is priceless advice. In the movie Damon’s character summoned the courage to speak with an enchanting woman he had never met. And, she eventually became his wife. What if we don’t take that chance?

Again, the risk need not be foolish, but sometimes it is more than OK to go for broke. A measured risk is worth the chance. Yet, we often overstate the risk and perceived embarassment of failure, when the actual risk is more measured. As I told my kids, “What if the person says no? No, is just an answer, but it at least it is one.” Without asking, you will never know if there is interest in your company, your resume, your idea, etc.?

So, find that twenty seconds of courage and go for it. The answer may be no, but at least you gave it a shot.

 

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Underneath a few headlines

We get so consumed with the person who shall not be named, we lose sight of other stories. Here are a few on this Father’s Day.

– Hong Kong citizens reminded the financial city leaders they are promised a different path forward by their owner. One million people equal to 1/7 of the city’s population protested the proposed law to extradite people to mainland China. The law was postponed, as a result. It should be noted some big money investors threatened to move money to Singapore to aid their cause. I applaud their protest and shows the power of people. China can ill-afford the notoriety or flight of capital away from Hong Kong.

– An issue that needs attention today, is a subset of our US debt issue. Social Security will soon pay out more than its revenues. This will draw down the trust fund in a way to require automatic 20% cuts in sixteen years. Of course, we could act now and make less onerous changes, but politicians are not even talking about this issue, which is par for the course, in my view. Why plan ahead they ask by their failure to act? I have seen exercises where a group of locals solve the Social Security funding dilemma. It should not be that hard for our representatives to act like such.

– Another shooting at Costco in the Los Angeles area occurred this weekend. Public shootings are now so commonplace in the US, it made page four of my newspaper. And, that shows how derelict our so-called leaders are in failing to do anything of substance. We have become too inured to gun deaths in the US. This makes me sad and angry that our representatives are failing to address a huge problem that is killing people. If Sandy Hook and Parkland school shootings can’t bring greater change, I truly do not know what will.

– Both Brazil and the US need more doctors, especially in rural areas. Brazil is seeing visiting Cuban doctors bail on them, as they are not getting paid what they are owed. Why is a good question? In the US, medical students are going more into specialty areas. With student debt, it is hard to practice in low income areas and in lower margin general services. There are good ideas with telemedicine, but doctors need to see their patients up close to assess risk, physical and environmental.

If you have not heard of these issues, it reveals how little we pay attention to news and news not related to a someone who commands so much attention. I am hard pressed to ever remember an occupant in the White House consume so much attention.

I could use a heavy dose of boring competence in a leader who need not be the center of attention. Maybe then, we could address some of these issues. So, let’s celebrate Hong Kong’s successful protest and speak to issues like these and others. Again, I hope fathers are having a wonderful day.

Ice on Fire

I encourage people to watch the excellent HBO documentary called “Ice on Fire” on concerns over climate change and remedial actions underway that should and can be leveraged. The documentary is produced and narrated by Leonardo DiCaprio, but the most impactful voices are the scientists, inventors and trendsetters who are seeing dividends from their actions and investments.

To sum up, we have two major problems facing us – too much carbon in the air along with a growing concern over methane as it is released from beneath melting ice caps and frozen tundra, on top of the venting from natural gas sites. The title comes from researchers lighting methane leaks on fire as it is released from melting ice covered waters. The scientists note with data that it is quite clear man is causing the hastened uptick in temperatures as we leave our carbon fingerprints in the atmosphere.

These are major concerns, but we are not sitting still. Significant efforts are underway. They can be categorized as putting less carbon in the air and capturing more carbon from the air. To avoid a novel, I will touch on some of the ideas, but please do deeper dives and watch the documentary airing now.

Stop putting carbon in the air

We must hasten the move to renewable energy. The costs are more on par and less, in some cases, than fossil fuel energy production. Wind and solar energy are growing at accelerated rates. One CEO noted, the technology is here to make this happen even more than it already is. Here in the US, California gets 25% of its electricity from solar and Texas gets 16% of its electricity from wind energy.

Yet, a very promising start-up off Scotland is tapping tidal energy. There is a company producing electricity today with an offshore platform with two turbines turned by the tides to generate electricity. I have written before about this group as they use existing technologies to harness the sea. Their success is gaining notoriety around the world, as it appears to be replicable.

Two other ideas also help with both recapture and restricting release. The first is reusing depleting biowaste (such as dying trees, plants and compost) in the soils to grow crops and future trees and foliage. The biowaste holds water better, maintains top soil and is straight out of nature’s guidebook.

The other is growing more kelp offshore as it captures carbon like sequoia trees and can also be used as a food source for livestock. Feeding cattle kelp is not a new approach. Feeding cattle is important as it greatly reduces the gases released by animals and preserves more carbon capturing grassland.

Capture more carbon from the air

The documentary spells out several natural ways to capture carbon and a few technological ways. On the former, here are a few ideas:

Maintain forests, especially those with large sequoias, which are huge carbon eaters. There are several places that are nurturing huge forests, but they note we need more of these efforts. We need to be mindful to replace what we cut, but keep some protected forests off limits to cutting.

Another example is to replenish mangroves that offer buffers to oceans. In addition to offering protection against storms, they also are natural born carbon eaters.

Another effort is to grow more urban farms. These farms are usually more organic, but in addition to absorbing carbon in urban areas, they perpetuate a farm to table concept that reduces transportation fumes. Reducing auto fumes is a huge concern of cities around the globe.

The next idea is more compex, but it requires the growing of more shells in the ocean. The dusts off the shells creates “ocean snow” that settles to the bottom and absorbs carbon. The idea is to spread a very small amount of iron in the ocean to cause more shells to grow.

The more technological solutions are designed to pull carbon out of the air. There are two approaches – one is to extract carbon and store it safely underground. The other is to pull it out and reuse it through artificial photosynthesis. Both of these options need more description than I am giving them. I prefer the more natural ways, but all of the above, is a necessary strategy at this late hour.

The scientists have concerns, but they do offer hope. The uncertainty of the ice-covered methane release gives them pause. They did note the methane release from accidental leaks from fossil fuel is visible from space and reduceable with some effort.

Another concern is the well-funded activity behind climate change deniers. A Wyoming rancher scientist standing in front of a visible, leaky methane cap said it plainly – they know this stuffs hurts kids more than adults. If someone came into my home to hurt my kids, it would be over my dead body. So, why is it OK too allow this?

Another scientist was less colorful, but equally plainspoken. He said fossil fuel executives perpetuating climate change denial should be tried in The Hague for crimes against humanity. Yet, as the costs have declined, the profit of creating carbon is becoming less palatable than the profit of reducing carbon in the air. People need to know these market forces exist today and not stand for future unhealthy energy creation.

Finally, if you cannot convince a climate change denier that we have a problem, ask them a simple question – if costs were not an issue, would you rather your children and grandchildren breathe methane from vented natural gas or drink coal ash polluted water or have carbon and methane neutral solar, wind or tidal energy? Guess what – costs are not much of an issue anymore and, in an increasing number of cases, less for renewables.

A little bit of this, a little bit of that this Wednesday

Happy hump day. Let’s cruise into the downside half of the work week. With multiple themes percolating in my mind, here are few little bits of this and that to bite into.

Former host of “The Daily Show,” Jon Stewart has been fiercely active in helping gain funding to pay for the medical costs of the 9/11 first responders in NYC. He gave an “out of the pool” criticism to a Congressional Committee in person as the funding has run out. He said in essence the first responders did their jobs, now you do yours. Forceful is an understatement. Let’s hope it sinks in. Congress and this president need to be shamed like that when they fail to do the obvious. In essence, he said I don’t give a crap about your politics, do the right thing. Amen brother.

The greatest talent of the current US president is marketing schtick. He can make a pair of twos look like a full house better than anyone. Like this analogy, most of what he does is untrue or blown way out of proportion. He knows fear sells, so he sells it daily, if not hourly. One of his greatest triumphs is to convince his followers that everyone is against him and that only he speaks the truth. He has his followers parroting his remarks saying “you just don’t like him” or have “Trump derangement syndrome.” In other words, it is your fault he lies far more than he does not.

The best line I read recently in a letter to the editor was an attempt to combat this. The letter writer said it is not the media and not the Democrats who are causing all of this chaos. He noted that the US president does not need any help in causing chaos and defaming his own character. He does a very good job on his own. I have said it differently – the greatest enemy of Donald J. Trump is the person who looks back from the mirror when he shaves. One of the reason why the volume of criticism is so high toward him is to combat the significant number of mistruths and the fact he has so many followers who see his lies on their phones.

Kudos should again go out to Republican Congressman Justin Amash from Michigan and Senator Richard Burr from North Carolina. Amash is an attorney and has read the Mueller report. He is a very lone and lonely voice in saying in writing that there exists grounds for impeachment of the president. It should be noted over 1,000 former federal prosecutors agree with him. Yesterday, he resigned from the Freedom Caucus and the vindictive president said he would “squash” Amash. To me, I see Nikita Khrushev pounding on the table at the UN with his shoe saying “we will bury you.” Fear sells.

Burr is also a lonely man, but he at least got a little air cover from Mitch McConnell. Burr subpoenaed the Junior Trump in to testify to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. Burr got backlash, but Junior was a “no-show” twice, so Burr asked a judge to get Junior’s fanny in to talk. The issue is Junior may have lied to the Committee about his awareness of the Moscow Trump tower that attorney Michael Cohen briefed him on. Junior said he was only a little aware of the Moscow development issues, but Cohen said he briefed him 10 or 12 times. Like father, like son.

Finally, I have been conversing with our astute British blogger Roger. We are of a like mind (note he is astute even when I don’t agree with him) that the Brits are looking to a very Trump-like prime minister in Boris Johnson. That is not meant to be a compliment. The only poetic justice is if the he wins and the Brits do a hard-Brexit, Johnson will be front and center in the mess he helped create by being untruthful. I understand the rationale, but am not a fan of Brexit – it will dampen the British economy and global clout and that saddens me.  But, if the UK follows through, please, please work out a deal. A hard Brexit, so says business leaders, would be as unwise a decision as the country leaders could make (or fail to make in this case). It should speak volumes that Trump, Johnson and Nigel Farage want a hard Brexit.

That is all for now. Have a great rest of the week.

 

Out of the pool

I think it is time to fire any politician in Washington who is forgetting why they are there. We could start with the White House incumbent and then take out hundreds of members of Congress in both houses. I understand fully Congress must investigate and provide oversight over the Executive Branch. That is part of their job and the current incumbent has given them cause to dig further.

Yet, I have this simple idea that leaders of both houses sit down with legislative liaisons from the White House and figure out some things they can pass and sign into law. I think a civilian board could list about a dozen major issues to focus on and say work these out. It should not take a civilian board, but these folks are too beholden to funders to come up with a workable list.

A key reason for not listing the problems is too much discussion occurs around whether not solving an issue helps them politically. A curse word comes to mind, so please insert your favorite. A good example is a bipartisan Senate immigration bill was passed in 2013, but the House refused to take it up as leaving immigration unaddressed would help the Republicans in the 2014 midterms. The Democrats should not be smug as they do the same thing.

Because of the Republicans unhealthy focus on dismantling the Affordable Care Act, the party justifiably lost seats in the 2018 midterms. To be frank, they should have lost seats with a rushed process that did not follow form and came up with several awful ideas. They should also thank Senators John McCain, Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski for saving them from themselves by voting against an ill-conceived vote.

But, what have Dems done with improving the ACA with their winning back the majority in the House – nothing other than “beating on their chest” bills that went nowhere? Not that they were bad bills, but don’t wait until an election in 2020 to address healthcare. The ACA is imperfect, but is working OK and needs some more stability and improvements due to initial design flaws and several efforts by the GOP to sabotage it.

So, Ms. Pelosi, Mr. McConnell, and Mr. Pence, get your fannies in a room with a white board and figure out how to get something done. I do not care which party benefits from what comes out of this. The key is we benefit. Do something that will be signed into law by the mercurial man in the White House. So, Mr. Pence you better have the Queen of Hearts’ blessing to make deals or you may lose your head.

Here are few items for the list:

  • Stabilize the ACA: pay insurers what we owe them (yes we reneged on two deals with them) and invite them back to the market to have more competition. Consider expanding Medicare to age 62 as a trial to improve the risk pools in both the ACA and Medicare. Push for the remaining states to expand Medicaid.
  • Address better gun governance: another mass shooting occurred yesterday and nobody in office cares. More suicides occurred yesterday and nobody in office cares. A few accidental shootings and homicides occurred and nobody in office cares. It is a holistic problem that needs holistic solutions. Do something, anything that will help even if it is just a little. Universal background checks and elongated waiting periods would be well received by the majority of Americans.
  • Address climate change at the federal level: Cities, states and some industries are moving forward without an active federal government role, which is rightfully being sued by 21 children for failure to address what they have known about for three decades. They actually have a good case. This is also a jobs and economy issue as we can look backwards and get passed by or look to growing renewables industries. As a good example of looking backward, we let China seize a significant majority of the rare earth metals market share from us which is now a threat to national security.
  • Address the debt and deficit: Trade deficits are not a big thing as we are a consumer driven economy. The far bigger crisis is our national debt and growing deficit. We have to pay for things and the less we do, the more risk we have with a growing interest cost as a percent of our annual budget. We must increase taxes and reduce spending, both. The GOP has forsaken its role in being a budget hawk passing a tax bill that made a growing problem worse. Revisit the Simpson-Bowles Deficit Reduction plan and do some of those things.

I will stop there, but there are more problems to address. Immigration is a problem, but it has been made worse under this president by cutting funding to help some Central American countries improve the lives of their citizens and the lack of judges to address the increased migration. A wall is not an answer. It is merely a structure. Dusting off that bipartisan Senate bill from 2013 would be a good start as well as addressing DACA. We need to keep educated young people in our country, as growth is an issue.

So, legislators, please get in a room and do some things that will pass. The focus should be on helping Americans, not helping legislators. Stop worrying about keeping your job and do your job. And, yes continue your oversight role as we are a republic not a kingdom.

 

 

 

Coal can’t be made great again says conservative economist

Walter Block is a professor of economics at Loyola University in New Orleans and a Libertarian. He recently penned an op-ed piece in The New York Times called “Coal can’t be made great again.”

Block sets the context for free-market thinking using more basic purchases – shoes, clothes, restaurant meals. This “leave it to the market forces” is a mantra for free-market Republicans. Yet, as Block notes “One would think that Republicans would apply that same logic to our fuel industry.”

He adds while government has a “legitimate role” in ensuring the safety of nuclear and other plants, “it should not favor, or oppose, nuclear power, gas, oil, coal, wind, water, solar, or any other source of energy over any other.”

He also notes a couple of observations of data points which reveal “the market is moving away from coal.” First, he writes “In 2016, American reliance on coal had dipped to 30% of total electric energiy expenditure, from about 50% in 2000. In contrast, natural gas and even wind, solar and water power are becoming less expensive, and will likely take on a greater share of the overall energy industry.”

Second, he notes “For the first time, as predicted by the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analytsis, in April, renewables generated more electricity than power plants fueled by what was once called ‘King Coal.'”

It is through these lenses, he views the efforts to subsidize coal use and place tariffs on imported solar panels as a political attempt to “pick winners.” We should not be “propping up coal” at the expense of alternative energy sources.

In my view, we are passed the tipping point on coal. New plants are too costly to build and the present value cost of acquiring, transporting, burning, storing the ash, health and environmental degradation and litigation of coal exceeds other sources. Further, the solar energy jobs are 4x the number of coal jobs. And, wind energy is soaring in growth, especially through the plains states.

This is not a US-centric result. Renewables are growing rapidly abroad with Germany now getting more energy from renewables than coal. China has been heavily investing in solar panels. But, my favorite global example is southern Australia is now solar powered using American Elon Musk’s battery storage and a French company’s installation of solar panels. Three continents came together to forge a renewable future.

While I agree with Block for the most part, government can play a role to help move forward cleaner energy initiatives, at least temporarily. So, the temporary 30% tax credit for solar power installation makes sense, especially when our Department of Defense continues to cite climate change as a significant threat to national security, even under the current president.

But, as the renewable costs have become more on par from a production standpoint, they can stand on their own without the tax subsidy. Embracing future technologies that will drive the economy is essential. As an example, yesterday, Toyota announced the movement from 2030 forward to 2025 when 1/2 of their vehicle sales will be electric cars, with batteries being made in China. So, if our leaders look backwards too much, we might get passed by.

 

 

 

 

Don’t be difficult to work with

A lesson I have witnessed often is the more difficult you make it to work with you, people will find other resources. Challenging employees better be good at what they do or they may be shown the door or encouraged to leave. If a company makes it difficult to work with them, buyers from and sellers to the company, will seek other options.

Here are a few real examples:

– A company known for shopping for services annually eventually ran out of bidders because the cost of doing business became too high (one company would just throw their Request For Proposal in the trash can). Sellers and buyers who promote relationships have more fruitful long term experiences.

– When Master Service Agreements became commonplace, the attorneys in our headquarters were as difficult to work with as attorneys at some of our clients. We lost a $1 million sale on an idea we raised and the client loved because of our legal obstinance. The second bidder got the work on our idea. That hurt.

– An employee of ours could never be satisfied and complained often. After she complained in my office for the tenth time about how her last employer did better at something, I said to her “We are obviously not meeting your needs. You are doing good work, but why don’t you look elsewhere.” She did and left. What she did not know is we had a continual growth mindset, so we were always talking with people. Her replacement was one of the best project managers I ever worked and she was a very congenial person and eventually an effective manager.

– A fellow consultant had an arduous client who was always asking for added scope services, which he often refused to pay for. After many months of this, the client called our CEO to complain. My colleague pulled up three competing consultants contact information and provided them to this client. In essence, he fired the client. He said it was one of the best decisions he ever made.

A US farmer noted on PBS Newshour yesterday, we cannot just turn off the tariff spigot and start the pipeline again. His buyers have found other options. As a business person, I have noticed this president fails to appreciate what it takes to get things done. We have witnessed this repeatedly in rash mandates that have people (even his own) scurrying. That is poor leadership and worse management.

Do you have any examples?